The objective of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of forest fire danger with risk model based on a geo-statistics. Because forest fire is one of the major disturbance factors on ecosystem, it is important for managing forest ecosystem to assess vulnerability of forest fire.

We used the climate data which was collected by Korea Meteorological Administration. To cover whole Korea, climate data was interpolated with raster format. Fire history was provided by Korea Forest Research Institute. Forest fire data and climate data were matched according to time and location.

Because climate is known as one of the crucial factors on forest fire occurrence, we analyzed the influence of climate factors such as precipitation, temperature and humidity. In addition, topographic factors and human accessibility factors also considered on analysis. Whole analysis was performed with geo-statistical method. Finally, we used the vulnerability assessment function which is computed with exposure, sensitivity and adaptation factors. Using these results, forest fire vulnerability map was prepared. And a future vulnerability was also estimated with future climate data which was simulated by A1B scenario of IPCC with ECHO-G model by KMA.