Introduction: At their distribution limits, plant species subsist under climatic stress and are considered as regionally endangered. Also, land use change increases the environmental stress and influences modern vegetation composition. Such effect could affect marginal plant populations more significantly and cause their reduction.

Methodology: Current distribution of 20 evergreen broadleaved species (5 at their northern limit) was studied at the Tokyo University Forest (2171 ha). Presence and absence was surveyed in 7112 plots of 10m by 10m. Current distribution was modeled by multivariate logistic regression with factors derived from a 10m DEM mesh (slope, solar radiation, surface curvature), a 1 km mesh climatic data, and land use maps: current (2005) and historical (1900).

Results: For northern limit species the historic land use was always a more important explanatory factor than current land use; surface curvature, precipitation and winter minimum temperature were also important factors.

Conclusion: For northern limit species, the historical land use has greater influence over their population distribution.