Logging and pasture were factors of biodiversity decline in forest landscape. This influence of human disturbance was different from each species or land-use. Therefore, we should consider what land-use and management scenarios prevent target species from decreasing

In our study, we projected forest dynamics by the model combining land-use change matrix with canopy species composition replacement matrix. In this matrix model, the dominance of species was calculated by estimating each land-use area in landscape and species composition replacement in the land-use change. We simulated this dynamics by considering dispersions of the observed data and calculated local extinction probabilities by counting cases that there was not a canopy tree of the species in landscape forest. As a consequence, the local extinction probability was decreased by natural forest conservation management.

Additionally, we analyzed correlation between the local extinction probability and species traits. Species traits represented succession, relative growth rates, light demand and shade tolerant which were regarded as explanatory variance by GLM. As a result, species traits which promote to early succession in cut-over area increased dominance in landscape. On the other hands, the effect of natural forest conservation was increased by having high wood density.