| 要旨トップ | 目次 | | 日本生態学会第59回全国大会 (2012年3月,大津) 講演要旨 ESJ59/EAFES5 Abstract |
一般講演(ポスター発表) P2-097J (Poster presentation)
Human mobility has had tremendous effect on the global malaria situation. Among 20 countries with high risk of malaria transmission in the Americas, 16 identified human mobility as a major cause of persistence of transmission. Migration has been associated with the spread of drug-resistant malaria in Africa and Southeast Asia. Investigations of movements and interactions of vectors and human host populations between different areas with different risk to malaria will provide useful information to public health control and prevention measures. We formulate a star network model involving a central urban area and several peripheral rural areas and carry out various investigations. Preliminary results show that commuters play a key role in the dynamics of diseases between the rural and the urban; when they are in small number the dynamics are almost equivalent to the decoupled populations with invasions occurring at distinct infection rates for rural and urban populations. As the number of commuters increases, the dynamics become synchronized at a specific infection rate. The mosquitoes carrying capacity between the rural and urban is also key in influencing the dynamics. The dominancy of some parameters in our model could inform key public health measures against malaria in the future.