| 要旨トップ | 目次 | 日本生態学会第61回全国大会 (2014年3月、広島) 講演要旨
ESJ61 Abstract


一般講演(ポスター発表) PA3-017 (Poster presentation)

Evolutionary dynamics of malarial pathogens on a star-network commute structure

'*Mpolya E (SOKENDAI)','Sasaki A (SOKENDAI)','Dieckmann U (IIASA)'

A previous study by Mpolya E.A et al (2013) showed that movements of hosts between the central city and surrounding villages in a star network topology could have significant epidemic dynamical effects on a vector-borne disease such as malaria. For example, commuters could have significant effects in the behavior of the basic reproduction number R0 as well as on the nature of the intervention decision. In this study we investigate the influence of commuters to the central city on the behavior of evolutionary singular strategies (ESS) of mutant pathogens of vector-borne diseases. Preliminary analysis shows that, (i) using the transmission-virulence trade-off of the law of diminishing returns we find that a point of maximum R0 is not necessarily the ESS. (ii) Movements of commuters influence the ESS of pathogens depending on differential effectiveness of transmissions between the city and villages. These results show that even without considering density dependence of transmission rates, population structure alone in a star network can have significant evolutionary effects from those expected of simple trade-off functions of transmission and virulence.


日本生態学会