Climate change has already affected species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Some alpine plants declines have already been documented. I assessed the vulnerability of mountain and alpine plant species in Japan. I made species distribution models for 48 alpine plant species and predicted their future distribution.

The most important factor to determine species occurrences was the difference of mountain which explains the unique environment and phylogeographic history of mountain. Competition index (CI) was more important than climatic factors. This result suggests that the upward shift of the high vegetation (or tree line) may outcompete the alpine plants. It was implied that alpine plant population decline in the future and that the speed of such vegetation shift could be a key to discuss the decrease of alpine plants. However effect of CI varied depending on species’ life forms. Herbs got largest negative effect, when higher plants come into their habitat. Species original habitat also decides important factor for the species. Mountains whose width of alpine zoon is small are vulnerable because they don’t have potential refugia for alpine plants. This prediction and factors relating to the vulnerabilities of species and mountains estimated by this study will give crucial information for conserving alpine plants.