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一般講演(口頭発表) G1-06

Derivation of yearly transition matrix of land-use dynamics and its applications

*Takada, T. (Hokkiado Univ.)

Probability-based transition tables, i.e., transition matrices, have often been used in landscape ecology and GIS studies of land-use to quantitatively estimate the speed of change. When transition matrices for different census periods are compared, the census intervals often differ because satellite images or photographs of the research site are not always prepared every year or at constant time intervals. If the census intervals differ, the transition probabilities cannot be compared without calculating a transition matrix with the normalized census interval. Therefore, to transform a transition matrix that has an arbitrary census interval into one that has a normalized interval, we set the normalized interval as 1 year and developed a method to obtain yearly transition matrices from transition matrices that has an arbitrary census period. We applied the technique to a hypothetical example and showed that, in general, there are plural solutions to a yearly transition matrix, which implies that there could be multiple scenarios for the same transition in land-use change. Using the technique, we analyzed the Abukuma Mountains in central Japan as an example of land-use change and showed a slow transition in this forest ecosystem, which provides a single solution. We discuss several practical problems with our method and propose a method to solve some of the problems.

日本生態学会