To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation, species distribution models (SDMs) are simple but useful tools. Although many studies in Europe and North America, by using the SDM techniques, examined any changes in potential habitats for plant species under current and future climate change scenarios, there are only a limited number of similar studies in East Asia.

Among the East Asian countries, Japan has nationally- or institutionally- developed, nationwide vegetation databases with relatively high spatial resolution (c. 1 km²). We have developed SDMs by analyzing the relations between environmental factors and the distributions of multiple numbers of Japanese trees or plant species such as conifers, beech, oak and dwarf bamboo species. The developed SDMs were further applied to identify vulnerable or sensitive areas under the predicted future climatic conditions. These results can be used for planning adaptation means for the future, such as reviewing existing nature conservation areas and boundaries. In this talk, we will present these results briefly and try to discuss advantages and limitations of the approach.