The Indian Himalayan region (IHR) is a vital water source, with major rivers like the Ganga, Yamuna, Indus, and Brahmaputra originating from its glaciers, supporting the livelihoods and ecosystem services of approximately 1.4 billion people. However, indigenous communities face significant risks due to climate-driven shifts in livelihoods, water stress, ecosystem degradation, and the decline of traditional knowledge. To adapt to environmental variability and climate change, these communities rely on ecological calendars (EC): knowledge-based systems that enable them to track seasonal changes to coordinate subsistence activities. However, the resilience and scope for revitalization of EC amid rapid environmental changes remain poorly understood.
Our research involves two field surveys with over 400 semi-structured interviews across 22 villages in Ladakh, including 19 in the Sham and Aryan Valleys, with 3 pilot villages to test the process. Interviews and focus group discussions with farmers, women, herders, youth, and elders documented traditional knowledge, farming cycles and resource management practices. We recorded seasonal indicators, solar and celestial events, weather patterns, ecological phenomena, and human activities to explore differences in existing EC among communities that, despite their geographic proximity and shared livelihoods, experience varying degrees of exposure to climate and environmental hazards.
Using the Socio-Ecological Production Landscapes and Seascapes (SEPLS) framework, we classified villages according to resilience based on landscape diversity, governance, and community adaptation capacity. This approach identified at-risk, vulnerable, and resilient villages, ensuring that adaptation strategies align with specific socio-ecological conditions. We generated tailored EC for each category using information on traditional subsistence activities and related climatic and biological indicators co-identified with communities. Comparisons highlighted variations in the use of seasonal indicators and associated traditional practices among the three categories. We found that at risk villages primarily rely on climatic cues such as temperature, snowfall, and spring water availability, the unreliability of seasonal cycles and cultural rhythms further reflects the severity of these environmental pressures. In contrast, resilient villages maintain more complex EC that integrate ecological, biological, and climatic indicators, supported by strong governance and cultural knowledge, enhancing their adaptive capacity.
By employing space-for-time substitution, our analysis provides a novel approach to document changes experienced by EC under a gradient of environmental and climatic hazards, understanding the links between ecological cues, seasonal activities, and climate adaptation. By revitalizing ECs, we aim to empower communities and researchers with culturally relevant, data-informed tools to navigate climate uncertainty, preserve traditional knowledge, and enhance long-term resilience in the IHR.