| 要旨トップ | 目次 | | 日本生態学会第73回全国大会 (2026年3月、京都) 講演要旨 ESJ73 Abstract

一般講演（ポスター発表） P1-393 （Poster presentation）

#### Modelling Habitat Suitability and Connectivity of Anemonefish by Integrating Habitat Suitability Models and Environmental Niche Models【A】【E】

*Christopher James RAUCH, Hideyuki DOI（Kyoto University）

We investigated how obligate mutualisms constrain species distributions under climate change, challenging the assumption that biotic interactions are negligible at macro-scales. By integrating host sea anemone distributions into Species Distribution Models for 17 anemonefish species, we found that host availability is a primary determinant of the realised niche, especially for specialists. Under future warming (SSP5-8.5), host immobility creates a biotic constraint, causing fish ranges to lag significantly behind their climatic potential. This mismatch generates over 3.2 million km2 of climatically suitable but ecologically inaccessible ocean. Furthermore, specialist anemonefish species with the narrowest niches face the highest climate velocities while being constrained to the most dispersal-limited hosts. These findings indicate that climate-only assessments underestimate extinction risk. Conservation should shift to a host-first management strategy to prevent the collapse of these mutualisms.

日本生態学会