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一般講演 E1-09

Collective deforestation induced by social learning under uncertainty of forest-use value

*Satake, A. (Princeton Univ.), Janssen, M.A. (Arizona State Univ.), Levin, S.A. (Princeton Univ.), Iwasa, Y. (Kyusyu Univ.)

Human understanding of ecological and social dynamics is clouded by uncertainty, and landowners may not know the true forest-use value. In order to deal with the uncertainty, we develop a decision model of deforestation under social learning. We assume that a forest is composed of a number of land parcels that are individually managed; landowners choose whether or not to cut trees by comparing the expected utilities of forest conservation and deforestation; landowners learn utility values not only from their own experiences, but also by exchanging and sharing information with others in a society. We observed three possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. Synchronized deforestation, which resulted in a resource shortage in a society, was likely to occur when landowners employed a short-term memory. Social welfare under a cyclic-forested landscape can be significantly lower than that of a stationary-forested landscape. This implies that learning and remembering past experiences are crucial to prevent overexploitation of forest resources and degradation of social welfare.

日本生態学会